Friday, 6 March 2015

My analysis of local by-election results from 5/3/15

Readers, the results for the four local by-elections from 5 March 2015, all of which featured Green Party candidates, were as follows:

Brent LBC, Kenton:  Conservative 1097 (51.4%, -1.6%), Labour 839 (39.3%, +6.8%), Green 121 (5.7%, -4.8%), Liberal Democrat 79 (3.7%, -1.3%).

Camden LBC, St Pancras and Somers Town: Lab 1481 (72.8%), Con 243 (12.0%), Green 213 (10.5%), Lib Dem 96 (4.7%)

Croydon LBC, Selhurst: Lab 1517 (71.5%), Con 246 (11.6%), Green 148 (7.0%), UKIP 147 (7.0%), Lib Dem 65 (2.9%).

Essex CC, Bocking: Con 1071 (34.3%), Lab 974 (31.2%), UKIP 855 (27.4%), Green 165 (5.3%), Independent S 58 (1.8%)

I believe tactical voting in Kenton, one of the more safely Conservative areas of Brent (and part of the constituency of Brent North, which was once safely Conservative until the Blairite landslide of 1997) may explain the swing away from the Green Party to Labour, although the lack of a UKIP candidate meant the Conservatives held without much trouble. As for St Pancras and Somers Town, the strong Green vote in 2010 was emphasised by Natalie Bennett's candidature (at the same time as being Green Party parliamentary candidate for Holborn & St Pancras) and her personal vote in that area; this may explain our relatively disappointing performance in that by-election. I am however pleased with the fact that we beat UKIP to third place in Croydon, a London borough not as unfriendly to UKIP (going by recent election results there) as many other London boroughs.

The close Bocking by-election result may be a prediction of things to come later this year-the rise of UKIP will likely fade somewhat come general election time except in areas where UKIP are targeting resources, and Braintree is not one of them.

As I am off to Green Party conference very soon at this time of writing, I only have time to give a somewhat short analysis this time.

Alan.

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