Friday, 10 July 2015

My analysis of local by-election results from 09/07/2015

Readers, the results from yesterday's by-elections which featured Green Party candidates (all except the local by-election in Gwynedd that was contested only by Plaid Cymru and a splinter group known as Llais Gwynedd), were as follows:

East Sussex CC, Old Hastings & Tressall: Labour 961 (56.5%, +7.4%), Conservative 368 (21.6%, +6.0%), UKIP 174 (10.2%, -12.2%), Green 149 (8.8%, +0.5%), Liberal Democrat 48 (2.8%, -1.6%).

Hastings BC, Central St Leonards: Lab 481 (44.0%, -9.1%), Con 259 (23.7%, +10.9%), Independent 184 (16.8%, +9.5%), UKIP 77 (7.0%, -8.8%), Green 75 (6.9%, -0.9%), Lib Dem 17 (1.6%, -1.5%).

Hastings BC, St Helens: Con 663 (43.5%, +3.6%), Lab 557 (36.5%, +2.1%), Lib Dem 136 (8.9%, -5.1%), UKIP 120 (7.9%, -13.9%), Green 48 (3.1%).

Hounslow LBC, Brentford: Lab 1292 (54.0%, +7.9%), Con 664 (27.7%, +13.2%), Green 209 (8.7%, -4.8%), Lib Dem 116 (4.8%, -1.3%), UKIP 113 (4.7%, -7.4%)

Hyndburn DC, Spring Hill: Lab 778 (55.3%, +5.4%), Con 475 (33.8%, -0.5%), UKIP 137 (9.7%, -6,1%), Green 17 (1.2%).

Sandwell MBC, Newton: Lab 1152 (59.1%, +11.1%), Con 452 (23.2%, -5.7%), UKIP 310 (15.9%, -7.3%), Green 36 (1.8%).

North Lanarkshire UA, Thorniewood (1st preference votes): SNP 1555 (47.0%), Lab 1410 (42.6%), Con 149 (4.5%), Scottish Socialist 81 (2.45%), Green 51 (1.55%), Christian Party 33 (1%), UKIP 29 (0.9%). SNP elected at stage 6.

Although none of these by-elections saw any change of hands, it is nevertheless noteworthy how unstable UKIP's support really is, since it fell sharply in all of these by-elections where the media was not paying attention. One useful feature of Green support is that it is considerably more stable in the long term, as these results showed even though we only managed an increased vote share in one of these by-elections.

The sharp Conservative increase in the Brentford by-election is perhaps not as surprising as one may think-having been heavily knocked back in Hounslow's most recent council elections of 2014 (they were reduced from 25 councillors in the borough to a rump of just 11, their heaviest local defeat in the Greater London area eclipsing Hammersmith & Fulham and even Ealing), and having lost the Brentford & Isleworth constituency to Labour two months ago, they likely wanted to show they were not uncompetitive even though they have not won the Brentford ward in decades. However, the fact that the Community Group did not stand in this by-election was also a factor (their voters were probably not that inclined towards Labour). On our side, we have usefully retained third place and retained more of our vote share than UKIP did.

It may be summer now, but I can assure you that all will be not quiet on the local by-election front (except regarding the overall turnout in said local by-elections in July and August).

Regards, Alan.

UPDATE: Full result of Thorniewood local by-election is now available and has been added to this blog post.


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