Friday, 7 August 2015

My analysis of local by-elections from yesterday (06/08/2015)

Readers, the results from yesterday's by-elections featuring Green Party candidates (all in Scotland this week) were as follows:

Glasgow UA, Calton: SNP 1507 (54.5%, +24.5%), Labour 814 (30.0%, -24.6%), Conservative and Unionist 129 (4.75%, +2.1%), UKIP 103 (3.8%), Green 99 (3.65%, +0.7%), Independent 47 (1.7%), Liberal Democrats 18 (0.7%, -0.3%). SNP elected at stage 1.

Glasgow UA, Anderston City: SNP 1441 (48.1%, +18.5%), Lab 857 (28.6%, -21.7%), Green 414 (13.8%, +3.3%), Con 164 (5.5%, +0.8%), Lib Dem 66 (2.2%, +0.5%), UKIP 43 (1.4%), Libertarian 12 (0.4%). SNP elected at stage 6.

Glasgow UA, Langside: SNP 2134 (49.9%, +12.3%), Lab 932 (21.8%, -14%), Green 579 (13.55%, +5.05%), Con 379 (8.85%, +1.5%), Lib Dem 125 (2.9%, -4.35%), UKIP 65 (1.5%), TUSC 62 (1.5%, -1%). SNP elected at stage 2, SNP gain from Green.

Glasgow UA, Craigton: SNP 2674 (54.2%, +22.8%), Lab 1643 (33.3%, -20.1%), Con 300 (6.1%, +2.5%), Green 136 (2.8%, +0.7%), UKIP 95 (1.9%, +0.9%), Lib Dem 87 (1.8%, +0.9%). SNP elected at stage 1.

South Lanarkshire UA, Hamilton South: SNP 1881 (48.0%, +15.4%), Lab 1396 (35.5%, -16%), Con 349 (8.9%, -0.3%), Green 127 (3.2%) Christian 77 (2.0%, -1.1%), UKIP 43 (1.1%), Lib Dem 32 (0.8%), Pirate 13 (0.3%). SNP elected at stage 2.

Back in 2012, the SNP had performed reasonably well in Glasgow, even if back then Labour retained majority control without much of a problem. If these local by-election results are anything to go by, however, the SNP will surely oust Labour easily from Glasgow City locally next time around (in 2017) just as they did at a Parliamentary level three months ago. Our loss in Langside was an unfortunate event but with the SNP doing so well at the first count, it was inevitable than even with relatively few transfers they would win the seat from us. The good news is that even where we were not initially strong, our vote share has increased when Labour has fallen back so heavily.

Alan.






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