Friday, 11 September 2015

My analysis of local by-elections from yesterday (10/09/15)-rare ward double by-election in Scotland

Readers, the results of local by-elections from yesterday featuring Green Party candidates were as follows:

Edinburgh UA, Leith Walk (2 seats up for election, 1st preference votes): SNP 2,209 (36.2%, +7.7%), Labour 1,623 (25.7%, -7.5%), Scottish Green Party 1,381 (21.8%, +1.5%), Scottish Conservative and Unionist 501 (7.9%, -0.2%), Liberal Democrats 255 (4.0%, -1.1%), UKIP 102 (1.6%), Scottish Socialist 97 (1.5%), Left Unity 32 (0.5%), Independent S 26 (0.4%), Libertarian 17 (0.3%). SNP elected on 1st count, Labour elected on 10th count. SNP hold, Labour gain from Green.

Maidstone BC, Fant: Con 474 (27.1%, -2.2%), Lib Dem 447 (24.1%, +2.1%), Lab 352 (20.0%, -0.4%), Green 249 (14.2%, +3.9%), UKIP 180 (10.2%, -7.4%), Independent H 75 (4.3%). Conservative hold. All changes are since May 2015.

Sandwell MBC, Blackheath: Lab 915 (51.4%, +7.0%), Con 544 (30.5%, -0.6%), UKIP 287 (16.1%, -8.4%), Green 35 (2.0%) Labour hold. All changes are since May 2015.

Midlothian UA, Midlothian West (1st preference votes): SNP 1540 (43.2%, +3.5%), Lab 945 (26.5%, -9.0%), Con 524 (14.7%, +4.0%), Green 372 (10.4%, +5.2%), Lib Dem 162 (4.5%, -1.2%), Independent T 25 (0.7%). SNP elected on 4th count, SNP hold.

Our overall good performance this week was sadly marred by our loss of a council seat in Edinburgh, partly due to later transfers from the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats benefitting Labour instead of the Greens; we actually increased our 1st preference vote with Labour suffering another swing to the SNP against them, and received more 2nd preferences from the SNP than Labour did. Fant proved once again to be a tight contest, with the Conservatives managing to hold out in the end despite strong campaigns from the Lib Dems and indeed us (Stuart Jeffery, who stood for the Canterbury constituency in May, has previously done well and secured a good 4th place despite strong campaigns by Labour, the Conservatives, and the Lib Dems (this ward became a five-way marginal in 2014!). The fact we doubled our vote share in Midlothian West despite it not being a target ward (our councillor in Midlothian represents Bonnyrigg) is also a particularly good sign given that even on this relatively small Labour-SNP swing, the SNP may gain an overall majority in Midlothian Council in 2017.

Alan.

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