Friday, 2 October 2015

My analysis of by-elections from 24/09/2015 and 01/10/2015

Readers, the results from local by-elections from 24 September 2015 and 1 October 2015 featuring Green Party candidates were as follows:

(24/09/2015):

Wyre Forest DC, Blakebrook & South Habberley: Conservative 595 (40.0%, +11.0%), UKIP 232 (16.9%, -3.2%), Labour 247 (16.6%, -1.7%), Green 173 (11.6%, +0.5%), ICHC 167 (11.2%, -4.2%), Liberal Democrat 54 (3.6%, -1.6%).

(01/10/2015):

Cherwell BC, Banbury Grimsbury & Castle: Lab 781 (45.0%, +8.3%), Con 661 (38.1%, +1.3%), UKIP 150 (8.6%, -6.3%), Lib Dem 73 (4.2%, -1.3%), Green 72 (4.1%, -3.8%). Labour gain from Conservative; all changes are since May 2015.

Aberdeen UA, George Street/Harbour: SNP 961 (51.2%, +17.5%), Scottish Labour 490 (26.1%, -6.4%), Conservative & Unionist 195 (10.4%, +3.7%), Scottish Green Party 136 (7.2%, -0.1%), Liberal Democrats 96 (5.1%, -4.8%). SNP elected at stage 1.

Aberdeen UA, Midstocket/Rosemount: SNP 1168 (40.9%, +1.9%), Con 675 (23.6%, +9.8%), Lab 608 (21.2%, -11.2%), Lib Dem 238 (8.3%, +1.9%) Green 170 (6.0%, -0.4%). SNP elected at stage 4, SNP gain from Conservative.

East Ayrshire, Urvine Valley: SNP 1797 (49.8%, +5.3%), Con 865 (24.0%, +5.8%), Lab 860 (23.8%, -6.3%), Green 88 (2.4%). SNP elected at stage 2.

Fife UA, Glenrothes West & Kinglassie: SNP 2235 (59.0%, +16.5%), Lab 1207 (31.9%, -9.3%), Con 234 (6.2%, +3.2%), Green 113 (3.0%). SNP elected at stage 1. All changes are since 2012.

Moray UA, Heldon & Laitch: Independent S 1323 (41.1%), SNP 1003 (31.1%), Con 703 (21.8%), Green 192 (6.0%). Independent (Dennis Slater) elected at stage 3.

Stirling UA, Stirling East: SNP 1311 (45.2%, +8.3%), Lab 1094 (37.7%, -11.9%), Con 343 (11.8%, +3.1%), Green 152 (5.2%, +0.5%). SNP elected at stage 3.

West Lothian UA, Linlithgow: SNP 2049 (43.1%, +1.4%), Lab 1088 (22.9%, +2.6%), Con 973 (20.7%, -12.7%), Green 282 (5.9%), Ind G 230 (4.8%), Lib Dem 133 (2.8%). SNP elected at stage 6.

I apologise for not posting the result of 24 September 2015 last week-I needed to rest to make sure I got up on time and had everything ready for Green Party conference last week.

There have been some rumours of a 'Corbyn bounce' effect in online media, but it is clear it has not really had much effect, especially in Scotland where Labour are still losing more ground to the SNP in by-elections, and to my Green colleagues to a lesser extent. It is now almost certain in any Scottish local by-election that occurs that a Scottish Green candidate will stand there, even in the remote islands of Eilean Siar (next week, we field our first ever candidate in the Outer Hebrides, which Eilean Siar consists of, for a by-election on 7 October) and the Orkney & Shetland Islands. Labour did gain Banbury Grimsbury & Castle's last Conservative seat by squeezing the Green vote but this was made easier by the fact they had already recovered two of the seats there. Blakebrook and Habberley South was also quite marginal but far from falling to Labour the Conservative majority increased substantially, although it was the declining Health Concern group (now with fewer councillors in Wyre Forest itself than on Worcestershire County Council!) who once again suffered a sharper loss in vote share (we beat them this time even though our vote share increase was only marginal). The Conservatives overall had a better time in Scotland which was marred by loss of one of their seats in Aberdeen to the SNP and by failing badly in West Lothian.

Alan.

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