Saturday, 16 January 2016

Other MPs at risk due to boundary changes

Notable coverage of divisions within the Labour Party has now also extended to which critics of Jeremy Corbyn face losing their seats in the next round of major boundary changes(as documented by The Independent), which will be the heaviest shake-up of United Kingdom parliamentary constituencies since the 1983 general election. Theirs will not be the only constituencies redrawn or broken up completely, however.

Here is a list of other notable MPs who face losing their seats or a much more difficult challenge if and when these boundary changes go through:

Hywel Williams (Plaid Cymru, Arfon): Welsh constituencies will be subject to the most substantial redrawing due to Wales now being subject to the same electoral quota used for England and Scotland as well-no extant Welsh seat, not even Ynys Mon, will survive unaltered and many will effectively disappear. Most of Arfon will likely be joined with Dwyfor Meirionydd in 2020, leaving Bangor to join Ynys Mon as a new constituency. Plaid Cymru's hard work means a hypothetical Ynys Mon ac Bangor seat will be notionally theirs, but Labour strength in both parts means Hywel Williams still faces a challenge to retain his seat at the next election.

Stephen Crabb (Conservative, Preseli Pembrokeshire): South Pembrokeshire (with Carmarthen West almost certain to join Carmarthen East & Dinefwr to reunite Carmarthen/Caerfyrddin, which will notionally be a Plaid Cymru seat) is set to absorb the majority of Preseli Pembrokeshire with the coast around Fishguard joining Ceredigion. The current Secretary of State for Wales may find himself with nowhere to go in 2020.

David Mundell (Conservative, Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale): The Borders area of Scotland will be no more immune to boundary changes in terms of its constituencies than the rest of it (except Na h-Eileanan an lar and Orkney & Shetland, of course). David Mundell, Secretary of State for Scotland, will see his seat be split three ways, into seats that will all be notionally SNP-held, if narrowly (his own majority over the SNP is just 799 votes/1.8%) because of the tremendous swings the SNP managed from Labour last year.

Ian Murray (Labour, Edinburgh South): Edinburgh South is likely to be split up next time. Neither of its successor seats will be quite as bad for the SNP, nor are they likely to select Neil Hay again for any of them after what he did during the 2015 campaign. Unless things go wrong for the SNP in the near future, Ian Murray, Labour's Shadow Scottish Secretary, will likely have to try his luck in an English seat.

Iain Duncan Smith (Conservative, Chingford & Woodford Green): The Woodford Green part is set to help recreate Winston Churchill's old seat of Wanstead & Woodford (called Woodford until 1964, but Wanstead & Woodford was just a new name), whereas Chingford will have to take parts of solidly Labour Walthamstow to retain enough electors. Iain Duncan Smith is one of the most unpopular Conservative MPs in Britain and he will likely be defeated whether he stays in a newly drawn Chingford seat or moves to a new Wanstead & Woodford seat which unlike the old, resolutely Conservative Wanstead & Woodford seat tat existed before 1997 will be marginal if created, and notionally Labour on 2015 results due to the fact Redbridge is trending towards Labour overall.

Seema Malhotra (Labour, Feltham & Heston): Part of her constituency will probably go to a seat containing large parts of Twickenham, another could be joined with most of Hayes & Harlington which John McDonnell currently represents, and the rest to be joined with Southall simply due to the unfair and practically unworkable quotas set in the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2011 (10% is far easier to work with than 5% in terms of deviance from the electoral quota). Will she be forced out simply by boundary changes?

Sadiq Khan (Labour, Tooting): If he does not become Mayor of London this year his political career could be cut short when his seat of Tooting has to gain an extra ward somewhere to increase its electorate to allowable levels. That ward will likely be solidly Conservative (most wards in Wandsworth are either solidly Conservative or solidly Labour locally and nationally) and could spell doom for Sadiq at the next election.

Tom Brake (Liberal Democrats, Carshalton & Wallington): The only remaining Lib Dem MP in Greater London could be forced out by boundary changes as well (unless the Liberal Democrats make any notable recovery), since Tom Brake's current seat will likely have to expand to include solidly Conservative Coulsdon.

David Davis (Conservative, Haltemprice & Howden): Haltemprice & Howden will likely be split up since major boundary changes could result in Goole being unjoined from the North Lincolnshire part of 'Yorkshire & The Humber'; Goole could then end up being joined with Howden. There are not enough electors in Kingston-Upon-Hull for three full seats in that city so it could expand westwards to take the Haltemprice part of David Davis' seat. The selection contests in North Lincolnshire/East Yorkshire could be rather interesting for all parties....

Tom Watson (Labour, West Bromwich East): The West Midlands urban conurbation is very vulnerable to the next round of boundary changes as many constituencies there are undersized and their wards are rather large. Tom Watson's seat of West Bromwich East could be broken up, as the many undersized seats nearby combined with the knock-on effect of the number of seats being reduced by 50 nationally will mean a complete redrawing of seats around the Sandwell/Walsall/Dudley/Wolverhampton area.

Nick Clegg (Liberal Democrats, Sheffield Hallam): Sheffield Hallam is the right size in electorate numbers but other nearby Sheffield seats are not. Sheffield Central and/or Sheffield Heeley could end up expanding westwards forcing Sheffield Hallam to expand northwards and take in Labour-supporting wards, which could force Nick Clegg out given the effort Labour made to unseat him in 2015.

Jacob Rees-Mogg (Conservative, Somerset North East): This well-known backbencher will likely see his seat being broken apart, and with nearby seats no longer being in the hands of the Liberal Democrats he may have to challenge another Conservative MP or at least face a challenge.

Cat Smith (Labour, Lancaster & Fleetwood): She is a noted supporter of Jeremy Corbyn but could end up losing her seat if it reverts to Lancaster & Wyre (its current electorate will be below the allowable parameters and the Blackpool constituencies are also a bit undersized at present) since the Wyre area is solidly Conservative.

There are many others who will face the same problems when the boundaries are shaken up, of course, particularly in metropolitan areas.

1 comment:

  1. Actually given the huge number of c*nts on that list lets get these boundary changes signed off pronto.