Friday, 30 September 2016

My analysis of by-elections from 29/9/16

Readers, the results of this week's local by-elections which featured Green candidates were as follows:

Dacorum BC, Adeyfield West: Liberal Democrats 520 (49.5%, +26.5%), Conservative 233 (22.2%, -6.4%), Labour 166 (15.8%, -6.5%), UKIP 115 (10.9%, -15.2%), Green 17 (1.6%)

North Norfolk, Glaven Valley: Lib Dem 429 (55.2%, +8.5%), Con 281 (36,2%, +3.7%), UKIP 32 (4.1%, -6.8%), Lab 23 (3.0%, -2.8%), Green 12 (1.4%, -2.5%).

Derby UA, Allestree:  Con 2006 (54.6%, -6.1%), Lib Dem 1053 (28.7%, +17.2%), Lab 409 (11.1%, -5.8%), Green 115 (3.1%), UKIP 91 (2.5%, -8.5%).

The poor Labour result in Adeyfield, where until recently they had consistent representation, is not actually that surprising-Labour is in long-term decline in the Dacorum area. They have only 1 remaining councillor in Dacorum, a council where they won overall control in 1973 and in the late 1990s, their vote share declined almost everywhere in Dacorum in the 2015 elections, which culminated with them making no headway against Conservative MP Mike Penning in the Hemel Hempstead constituency (where I stood in 2015, as you probably already know).

I am pleased we beat UKIP in Allestree even though this is more down to UKIP's decline, since Allestree is a safe Conservative ward and has been since it was created in 1996 upon Derby becoming a unitary authority (that year, it was in fact the only Derby ward to elect solely Conservative councillors, with even Spondon only electing one out of three). The interesting thing is that a by-election was held there in the first place because the sitting Conservative councillor falsely claimed to live in Derby so he could win the safest Conservative ward in the city of Derby. He was quickly caught after only 10 days as a councillor. In light of this scandal, the Liberal Democrats claimed an 11.6% swing, but Allestree remained in Conservative hands as always.

Coming up-my alternative boundaries for those 2018 Review constituencies.

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