Friday, 14 October 2016

My analysis of by-elections from 13/10/16 and other thoughts

Readers, the results of by-elections from this week featuring Green Party candidates were as follows:

Cumbria CC, Windermere: Liberal Democrats 1009 (52.3%, -9.7%), Conservatives 785 (40.7%, +22.0%), Labour 88 (4.6%), Green 46 (2.4%).

Lancaster BC, Westgate: Lab 443 (41.6%, +10.1%), Morecambe Bay Independents 193 (18.1%, +0.2%), UKIP 183 (17.2%, -7.9%), Con 178 (16.7%, -8.7%), Lib Dem 41 (3.9%), Green 26 (2.4%).

Lewisham LBC, Brockley: Lab 1190 (48.0%, +10.6%), Green 631 (25.4%, -1.7%), Lib Dem 259 (10.4%, +6.2%), Con 195 (7.9%, +0.2%), Women's Equality Party 173 (7.0%), UKIP 33 (1.3%, -4.1%).

Lewisham LBC, Evelyn: Lab 1028 (53.4%, -1.9%), People Before Profit 314 (16,3%, -3.2%), Con 183 (9.5%), Independent 173 (9.0%), Green 119 (6.2%, -6.2%), Lib Dem 107 (5.6%, -2.1%).

Poole UA, Broadstone: Lib Dem 2184 (69.3%, +28.2%), Con 733 (23.3%, -15.4%), UKIP 132 (4.2%, -9.2%), Green 57 (1.8%, -5.0%), Lab 45 (1.4%).

South Lakeland DC, Windermere Bowness North: Lib Dem 441 (60.1%, +11.1%), Con 256 (34.9%, -4.1%), Green 37 (5.0%, -0.9%).

I hoped that the current Green Party Chair, Clare Phipps, would win in Brockley but it was not to be, partly due to TUSC and PBP not contesting the election and with Labour determined to prevent my colleagues gaining group status on Lewisham Borough Council and thus forming a real opposition to Labour. In Lewisham, Labour recently cut £1.3 million from its social care budget, and this cut hits people with disabilities and developmental conditions like myself the hardest. Meanwhile in Poole, we were relentlessly squeezed by the easily victorious Liberal Democrats, whose newly elected councillor, Vikki Slade, had clearly failed to defend Mid Dorset & North Poole last year following Annette Brooke's retirement. Our saving grace is that we beat Labour, who have received their worst local by-election result in months.

Six days from now, the Witney by-election will take place, and if you are reading this blog and can help Green candidate Larry Sanders this weekend in his bid to be Witney's next MP, please come if you have time and can make it to West Oxfordshire.

Contrary to what has been posted here:
the Great Barrier Reef is not quite dead, but it is dying and we are undoubtedly running out of time to save what remains of it. Inaction on damage to our coral reefs, melting of Arctic ice, and acidification of our oceans is not an option; we must do more to stop more plastic and chemicals filtering into our seas, and do what we can to limit greenhouse gas emissions.


  1. Broadstone has ALWAYS been strong Lib Dem or Residents Association territory. It's one of the many self contained suburbs type towns around the Dorset/Hampshire coast conurbation of Poole, Bournemouth Christchurch. - it is the North Poole in Mid Dorset - North Poole Parliamentary Constituency - along with Corfe Mullen, Mereley (almost part of Wimbourne but in Poole UA not East Dorset DC) - what is noticeable to me in recent results it that Green Party of England & Wales members seem to be doing better in urban and more Labour leaning council areas while Liberal Democrats maintain momentum in farming, fishing and tourist communities like the Windermere results and recent successes in the South West in Teignmouth, Penzance , Redruth. - I shall await the Weymouth & Portland result next week. As far as Witney goes you can't seriously see a significant placing for Larry Sanders despite his brothers fame? My prediction Tory Hold - reduced majority on turnout. Liz Leffman second, then a Labour or UKIP third. - pushing GPEW into a 5th place before the also rans.

  2. Why did the Womens Equality Party insist on standing in Brockley, the Greens strongest part of Lewisham, and nowhere else? They really didn't help the Green vote. I hope they now realise that with first past the post system they need to consider where they are going to focus their fire a little better and in conjunction with like-minded parties. Otherwise they will not last long.

  3. I'm not sure we can make that argument Robert - plenty of Labour people throw the very same thing at us where there's a LAB/CON marginal (we had it up here in Halesowen in May).

    WEP obviously felt they'd get a good result so they stood. It's up to us to persuade voters and WEP members that a) WEP is redundant when the Greens exist and b) voting WEP in Brockley is a wasted vote under FPTP.

    Sure, it's frustrating but unless we work something out with WEP, why shouldn't they stand?